Friday, June 24, 2011

Immigration numbers plunge by almost half

NET migration to Australia is in free fall. In two years, migration has plunged by almost half, intensifying the skills shortages that threaten to drive up interest rates.

The Bureau of Statistics reports that net migration was just 171,000 in 2010, down sharply from 316,000 in 2008, and the lowest since the bureau changed its measuring system in late 2006.

Australia's population growth fell to 325,500 in 2010, down from 467,300 in 2008.

On New Year's Eve, the bureau estimates, Australia had 22,477,400 residents, up 1.5 per cent over the year. There has been no let-up in the fall. In the six months to December, net migration slumped 37 per cent year on year, from 121,500 to 77,000, while the Reserve Bank said the economy was close to full employment.

Net migration into Victoria fell even more sharply. In 2010 it slumped 37 per cent, from 76,000 to 48,000, partly reflecting the impact of Indian media coverage of violence against Indian students.

Since 2003, Indians had been the main source of permanent settlers in Victoria.

But in 2009-10, their numbers slumped 14 per cent, and China became the state's main source of settlers.

Chinese (8151) and Indians (7739) easily outnumbered settlers from Britain (4282) and New Zealand (3696).

They were followed by Sri Lankans (2484), Filipinos (2112), Malaysians (1638), South Africans (1477) and Vietnamese (1347). Other bureau figures show the slump in migration has continued in 2011.

The government planned for an unchanged 168,700 family and skilled migrants in 2010-11, and 13,750 humanitarian refugees, but arrivals data shows a far different trend.

In the 10 months to April, excluding New Zealanders, just 83,750 people arrived as permanent settlers, down 20 per cent from 104,700 a year earlier. In 2011 alone, the number is down 17 per cent. The figures suggest that the anti-immigration rhetoric of the ALP and the Coalition in the 2010 election campaign has influenced either the way immigration applicants are being assessed, or overseas interest in coming in the first place, or both.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott demanded a ceiling of 170,000 people a year on net overseas immigration (which measures the balance between arrivals of permanent and long-term settlers, and permanent and long-term departures from Australia). The Coalition has gone quiet on the issue since, after sharp criticism from its business allies.

A spokeswoman for the Immigration Minister, Chris Bowen, said the sharp decline in net overseas migration reflected immigration reforms that had tackled the potential abuse of student visas and shifted the focus to high-value occupations.