Odds on for an overwhelming Labor victory, say bookies

AT NATIONAL level, the bookies have Labor as overwhelming favourite to win Saturday's election. But at seat-by-seat level, their odds are pointing to a hung Parliament.

On the odds posted late yesterday by online bookmakers Centrebet and Sportsbet, punters are expecting the government to lose a net 13 seats that are notionally Labor after the redistribution leaving it with just 75 of the 150 seats in the House.

In the past 24 hours, the Coalition has swept to favouritism in the Sydney seats of Bennelong and Lindsay, which until now Labor had been expected to hold.

Overall, the bookies have the Coalition as favourites in 13 notionally Labor seats eight of them, seats it won in 2007, and the other five, Liberal-held seats which on 2007 voting, would be Labor under the new boundaries.

But Labor is tipped to pick up just one seat McEwen, on Melbourne's north-east fringe. And as the bookies are calling it, that would be offset by the loss of Melbourne to the Greens.

If all seats go to the current favourites, Labor would have 75 seats in the new 150-member House, the Coalition 71, independents three and the Greens one. To make the House workable, Labor would have to reach some binding agreement with the Greens, and/or one or more independents.

Yet at national level, few are punting on a hung Parliament. The odds are shortening, but late yesterday the hung Parliament was a $3.22 outsider at Centrebet, and $3.85 at Sportsbet.

That was about the same as the odds offered on the Coalition winning a majority: $3.60 at Centrebet and $3.72 at Sportsbet.

Labor remains the clear favourite with punters at both agencies, with Centrebet offering $1.28 for your dollar and Sportsbet $1.27.

Judging from the odds, the closest seats are now the outer western Sydney seat of Lindsay (which the Liberals are tipped to win narrowly) and the Darwin seat of Solomon (which Labor is tipped to retain narrowly).

In Victoria, Labor is firming as favourite to hold Deakin and Corangamite, and to take McEwen. Sportsbet still has Corangamite as the closest seat, but Centrebet's odds are now pointing to a potential cliffhanger in La Trobe, where Liberal Jason Wood won narrowly in 2007 and is tipped to do so again.

In New South Wales, the Coalition is now tipped to hold two seats it notionally lost in the redistribution (Gilmore and Macarthur) and to take Bennelong, Lindsay, Macquarie and Robertson from Labor.

In Bennelong, former Davis Cup hero John Alexander has surged to favouritism over former ABC TV journalist Maxine McKew, potentially wreaking revenge on the defeat she inflicted on prime minister John Howard in 2007.

But in Queensland, where 11 notionally Labor seats are at risk, the bookies have the Coalition as favourite in only five.


WHAT THE PUNTERS THINK

COALITION GAINS (13)

NSW (6), Queensland (5), WA (2)

LABOR GAINS (1)

Victoria

GREEN GAINS (1)

Victoria

YET OVERALL RESULT

LABOR $1.28/$1.27

COALITION $3.60/$3.72

HUNG PARLIAMENT $3.22/3.85

SOURCE: ODDS FROM CENTREBET AND SPORTSBET

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Cliffhanger - bookies give Labor slim lead

THE bookies still say it's Labor but only just. And despite appearances, the polls are converging, and pointing towards a cliffhanger result in Saturday's election.

A new Morgan poll, a very interesting Tasmanian poll for Launceston's daily, The Examiner, and a brace of polls in marginal seats published at the weekend all imply that Labor leads narrowly.

But the swings to the Coalition in Queensland and New South Wales states where Labor has 22 marginal seats to defend could see the Liberals make enough gains to force a hung parliament, or even snatch victory despite Labor winning more votes.

The Examiner poll added its spice to the mix showing the Liberals are polling so badly in Tasmania that the Greens have a chance of overtaking them and winning Hobart's two seats, Denison and Franklin, off Labor, on Liberal preferences.

The bottom line is that the election remains very open. All the polls agree that Labor is gaining ground in Victoria, putting Liberal MP Jason Wood at risk in La Trobe. But the Coalition is making gains in NSW, Queensland and WA, while South Australia is reporting no change.

The outcome will be decided in the campaign's final week and a hung parliament, with Greens and independents holding the balance of power, is a strong possibility.

That is not how the bookies see it. They still have Labor firming even though its majority would be reduced to just four seats.

Last night the four online bookies Betfair, Centrebet, Sportbet and Sportingbet on average were offering $1.31 for a dollar punted on a Labor win, and $3.58 on the Coalition.

But Centrebet and Sportsbet agree that Labor is likely to lose 11 of its notional 88 seats going into the election including five of the six seats that the redistribution notionally shifted from the Coalition to Labor. It would gain just one seat McEwen, on Melbourne's north-east fringe but lose Melbourne to the Greens.

If the punters are right, Labor's majority would be cut to four seats in the new Parliament. Labor would have 77 seats, the Coalition 69, independents three and Greens one. But two of Labor's seats are seen as virtually lineball: Lindsay in Sydney's outer west, and Darwin's seat of Solomon. If it loses them, it loses its majority.

Conversely, the bookies think Labor still has a decent outside chance of taking Hughes (NSW) from the Coalition, retaining Hasluck (WA), and holding the Mackay seat of Dawson, where the Liberals' George Christensen has been damaged by the publication of undergraduate writings in which he declared women "stupid".

Yesterday's Galaxy poll was reported as showing the Coalition ahead by 51.4 per cent to 48.6. In fact, that was just the outcome in the 20 marginal seats polled.

On average, it found a swing to the Coalition of 1.6 per cent, implying that if its choice of seats was representative Labor leads 51-49 nationwide.

But its four Queensland seats showed a 5.4 per cent swing to the Coalition, which it translated as a gain of 10 seats. In NSW it found a 2.4 per cent swing (seven seats) and in WA a 2.1 per cent swing (two seats). While Labor would claw two seats back in Victoria (McEwen and La Trobe), this would give the Coalition a bare majority in its own right.

Of course, statewide swings are not uniform, and the Coalition would need a lot of luck to win 17 seats on a swing of just 1.6 per cent.

A separate sample of marginal seats last week by Newspoll closely resembled Saturday's Age/Nielsen poll, which found Labor ahead by a 53-47 margin with a strong swing to the government in Victoria offset by smaller swings against it in NSW, Queensland and WA. Victoria does matter. As does Tasmania. A poll of 1000 Tasmanian voters late last week for The Examiner found Labor with a massive 60 per cent of the two-party vote. But while it was in no danger of losing any seats to the Liberals, it is at risk of losing the two Hobart seats to the Greens, on Liberal preferences.


WHAT THE POLLS SHOW

AGE/NIELSEN

Labor 53%

Coalition 47%

Swings against Labor in NSW, Queensland and WA put it at risk.

MORGAN

Labor 51%

Coalition 49%

Forecasts hung Parliament.

Labor losses in NSW, Queensland and WA.

GALAXY

In 20 marginal seats, swings averaging 1.6% to Coalition. Big losses in Queensland and NSW could see hung Parliament or Coalition win.

NEWSPOLL

Marginal-seat survey finds big swing to Labor in Victoria, smaller swings against it in NSW and Queensland. Implies Labor win with reduced majority.

EXAMINER

Tasmanian poll finds Coalition doing badly, Labor at risk of losing two seats to Greens.

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Bookies pick Labor to win

THE bookies rate Labor as a heavy odds-on favourite to win the federal election. Yet the first list of odds for individual seats suggest they think we are heading for a hung Parliament.

Odds for individual seats posted by bookmaker sports bet.com.au imply that Labor stands to lose its majority in the House of Representatives.

Heavy plunges by punters betting on Labor have made Sportsbet shorten its odds for the overall outcome to just $1.22 for a $1 bet, while the Coalition has drifted out to $4.

Yet the odds for the first 41 seats on offer show the Coalition favoured to win 15 seats from Labor, with Labor favoured to take two from the Coalition, a net loss of 13.

But the odds suggest Labor is also likely to lose Melbourne to the Greens, while the middle eastern suburbs seat of Deakin is too close to call.

The odds imply that in the 150-member House, Labor would win 73 seats, Liberals 72, independents 3, the Greens 1, with Deakin in doubt.

Sportsbet has the Liberals favoured to win back Corangamite, south and west of Geelong, where former 7.30 Report compere Sarah Henderson is their candidate.

But it has Labor as favourite to win the ultra-marginal seat of McEwen, on Melbourne's north-eastern fringe, where Liberal Fran Bailey is retiring.

It sees the Liberals picking up three Labor seats in NSW Robertson, Macquarie and Lindsay and holding Gilmore and Greenway, which the redistribution has made notionally Labor. In Queensland, the Coalition would win back six seats Labor gained in 2007 Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Petrie and Bonner but lose the ultra-marginal seat of Bowman.

It has high-profile Labor MP Maxine McKew a clear favourite to hold Bennelong from former Davis Cup hero John Alexander and also has Labor favourite to hold all its five seats in Tasmania.

Sportsbet's Haydn Lane said the odds posted at the weekend were opening offers which would change constantly as bets came in.

Labor's odds of winning the election had shortened sharply since its change of leadership, he said. "We are actually taking more bets on the Coalition, but all of the big money of late has been on Gillard's Labor."

Centrebet has installed August 28 as odds-on to be the election date.

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