Monday, April 25, 2011

China to lead world economy

CHINA is about to overtake the United States as the world's biggest economy, creating profound changes in the balance of global power.

In forecasts inserted quietly on its website in recent days, the International Monetary Fund has projected that, by 2016, China will overtake the US in real economic output - the first time in the modern era that any country has done so.

Economic historian Angus Maddison estimated that the Soviet Union at its peak produced only a third as many goods and services as the US; Japan's economy at its peak was still less than half the size of the US economy.

China's ascension has been startlingly different, in speed and size. If it grows at anything like the 10 per cent rate it has averaged since 1980, its economy will be far bigger than that of the US within a generation.

Australian National University professor of strategic studies Hugh White said the looming end of US economic dominance marked a turning point for the world, and had serious implications for Australia.

''For us, it is the end of a very long cycle in which both our great allies, first Britain, then the United States, have been the strongest economy in the world and the greatest military power,'' Professor White said.

''For the first time, the greatest economic power in the world will not be our close ally.

''One issue is whether we will have to accommodate an ambitious, growing China that behaves reasonably well, or face an aggressive China that operates without such constraints. Another is how the US responds to China's growing military strength.''

Professor White said that while the US had confronted more-hostile enemies before - Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union - it had never had to contend with a rival that matched it in economic strength.

He said this would pose a ''very tough strategic choice'' for Australia as to whether or not to back the US in a conflict.

China's growth has been unprecedented. In 1980, when its economic reforms were just starting, the IMF estimates the US produced more than 10 times as many goods and services. Even 10 years ago, when China overtook Japan to become the world's second-biggest economy, the US still produced three times as much.

But since then China's share of global output has doubled, while that of the US has shrunk rapidly. From 25 per cent of global output in 1986, the US share has shrunk to less than 20 per cent and a projected 17.8 per cent by 2016.

China produced just 2.2 per cent of the world's output in 1980, but this rose to 7 per cent by 2000, 14 per cent now, and is projected to top 18 per cent by 2016.

By 2016, the IMF estimates, China will be producing more in a fortnight than it did in a year when the reforms began. Over that period, its output would have risen to 30 times its starting level; US output would have risen to 2.7 times its 1980 level.

The US would still be the world's biggest market. If China keeps its currency heavily undervalued, as it is now, the IMF projects that, in nominal terms, by 2016 the US economy will still be two-thirds larger than China's.

But this gap would simply reflect currency values. Factor in relative prices, and China's real output of goods and services would be the world's biggest.

The IMF assumes that China will grow at 9.5 per cent a year over the coming decade, a tad slower than previously, while US

growth would accelerate from an average of 2.1 per cent over the noughties to 2.75 per cent in the new decade.

Australia is assumed to average growth of 3.25 per cent, and more or less maintain its place in the world economy, which has changed remarkably little over the past century.

On Professor Maddison's estimates, Australia in 1913 produced 1.02 per cent of the world's output. On the IMF's figures, this edged up to 1.34 per cent in 1981, is 1.19 per cent now, and will shrink further to 1.11 per cent by 2016.

This reflects the rapid growth not only of China, but developing countries as a whole. In 1990 they produced just 31 per cent of the world's output, but by 2010 this had risen to almost 48 per cent, and by 2013 most of the globe's output would come from low- and middle-income countries.

India's growth is projected to continue at more than 8 per cent a year. It is on track to overtake Japan next year to become the world's third-biggest economy in real output.

The relative weight of Japan and the European Union is declining rapidly. On IMF projections, by 2016 Japan would account for just 5 per cent of global output, down from 10 per cent a generation earlier, while China and the US would have overtaken the EU's output.


Friday, April 1, 2011

Melbourne's population explosion

MELBOURNE'S outer suburbs are growing faster than any other area in Australia, part of a record-breaking trend that has seen Melbourne's population closing the gap on Sydney.

The city's outer suburbs are leaving coastal Queensland and Western Australia's mining towns in their dust, as more than 1000 people a week pour into Melbourne's fringe.

New figures from the Bureau of Statistics show that while the boom in overseas immigration cooled off all over Australia in 2009-10, Melbourne was again the centre of Australia's population growth.

. In the year to June 2010, Melbourne is estimated to have grown by 79,000 people, or more than 1500 a week. For the ninth consecutive year, Melbourne had the biggest growth of any city in Australia.

. Since 2001, Melbourne has gained 605,000 new residents, up 17 per cent, rapidly pushing out the urban boundary in every growth corridor. That is far ahead of growth of 447,000 in Sydney, 380,000 in Brisbane, and 303,000 in Perth.

. For the first time in almost 30 years, Melbourne's population is within 500,000 of Sydney's, and gaining. If the growth rates of 2001-10 continued, Melbourne would overtake Sydney in 2028, when each city would have roughly 5.6 million people. At June 30 last year Sydney had 4.575 million people to Melbourne's 4.077 million.

. No other city in Australia has ever recorded growth of this size. It has strained the city's infrastructure and services, adding to congestion on the roads, delays, overcrowding on public transport and waiting times in hospital emergency wards. Some believe it was a key factor in Labor's unexpected loss at the 2010 state election.

. The four fastest-growing municipalities in Australia in 2009-10 were all on Melbourne's fringe. Wyndham (which includes Werribee), Melton, Whittlesea (South Morang) and Cardinia (Cranbourne) left behind all the boom areas of other states, with their combined populations growing by 33,216 or 7 per cent.

Wyndham alone added 12,600 people last year, matching Victoria's entire population growth at one point during the Kennett government. Since 2001 it has added almost 70,000 people, roughly equal to adding a city the size of Bundaberg to Melbourne's south-west fringe.

Last year its growth in absolute numbers almost matched that of the Gold Coast. It puts pressure on the Baillieu government to press on with the new train line begun by the Brumby government, one of the many big-ticket projects under review.

The fall in arrivals of overseas students cut Melbourne's population growth sharply in 2009-10, from 96,000 a year earlier. But the bureau estimates that growth shrank overwhelmingly in the middle and inner suburbs, where most students live. Growth on the outer fringe barely lost a beat.

In 2009-10, based on the bureau estimates, roughly 68 per cent of the city's new people settled more than 20 kilometres from the GPO. That was a sharp rise from 58 per cent over the previous three years.

The NIMBY (not-in-my-back-yard) syndrome continues to limit redevelopment in inner and middle areas. The blockage of supply has seen house and unit prices soar in inner areas, giving lower-income buyers no choice but to live far out.

Over the nine years since Melbourne replaced Sydney as Australia's growth centre, five in every eight new residents has had to settle more than 20 kilometres from the GPO. Of Melbourne's 4,077,000 people at June 30 last year, roughly 1,814,000, or almost half, lived more than 20 kilometres out.

But the inner circle population has also grown sharply, rising by 74,000 or 30 per cent.

The pace of inner urban growth has slowed in recent years, but with a forest of new apartment towers approved over recent months, it appears set to rebound rapidly.

Victoria's growth dropped to 99,000 in 2009-10, down from a record 120,000 a year earlier. Nearly all that decline was in Melbourne, with regional Victoria accounting for a quarter of the state's population growth.

Planning Minister Matthew Guy said the Baillieu government was acutely aware of infrastructure and housing shortages, and promised strategies early in this term to address the problems.


This is how much Melbourne has grown by in the past 9 years