Sunday, November 7, 2010

Poll points to possible hung Victorian parliament

A NEW poll has put the Coalition on level pegging with the Brumby government, suggesting Victoria too could have a hung parliament and minority government after November 27.

The Essential Research online poll, taken over September and October among 1465 voters, reports the Coalition holding a six-point lead over Labor on first preferences, with 44 per cent to Labor's 38 per cent.

The poll reported the Greens vote as 12 per cent. After preferences, the poll found Labor and the Coalition in a dead heat, each with 50 per cent of the two-party vote. If Victorians were to vote that way, Labor would likely lose its majority in the Legislative Assembly, giving the Greens the balance of power and the ability to decide which side would form the government.

On a uniform swing, the Coalition would stand to win 10 seats and the Greens three. Labor and the Coalition would have 42 seats each, with the Greens and independent Craig Ingram holding the balance of power.

But no other recent poll has been as positive for the Coalition. On average, the other polls show Labor leading the Coalition 52-48 after preferences.