Parties try to push the boundaries

THE ALP wants the Geelong seat of Corio to be shifted north into Werribee, to shore up its hold on the neighbouring seat of Corangamite adding 8500 voters in (Labor) Geelong, and shedding 15,000 voters in and around (Liberal) Colac.

The Liberals, instead, want Julia Gillard's seat of Lalor to be moved down into northern Geelong. That would push Corangamite out of Geelong and back into the Western District, to make it a Liberal seat again.

Welcome to the upcoming redistribution of Victoria's 37 federal electorates, in which all parties are trying to get the Australian Electoral Commission to change the electoral boundaries in their favour.

In Melbourne, where Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner is under threat from the Greens, the rapid growth of the CBD and Docklands means the seat must shed 10,000 voters. But where?

Labor has asked the redistribution commissioners to split off green-leaning North Fitzroy, Clifton Hill, and south-east Brunswick. But the Greens and Liberals suggested the commissioners instead cut off the Labor stronghold of Ascot Vale putting Mr Tanner in even more danger.

It is Victoria's first redistribution for eight years, and sorely needed because the last redistribution concentrated most outer suburban growth into just four electorates.

While all seats are meant to have roughly equal numbers of voters, McEwen in the Plenty corridor now has 110,741 voters, or 30 per cent more than middle suburban Chisholm (85,187).

By 2014, the commission projects, four outer suburban seats Lalor, Gorton, McEwen and Holt will have enough voters for an extra seat between them. But a ring of 16 middle suburban seats will have only enough voters for 15 seats.

The usual solution in redistributions is to push seats further out to where the voters are moving, rather than abolish some seats to create new ones. By drawing the boundaries so that each outer seat has only one growth corridor, voter numbers can be kept fairly even.

In the past, shrinking populations in rural areas saw redistributions abolish regional seats to create new seats in Melbourne. But with all of Victoria now growing, such radical surgery appears unlikely this time.

The 11 regional seats as a group would be only 30,000 below their quota in 2014. With oversized, outer suburban McEwen having a similar number of country voters, the obvious solution is to put them in the regional seats.

But that hasn't stopped the parties suggesting massive boundary changes. The Liberals want to bring the northern seat of Murray as far south as Romsey, and send the north-east seat of Indi sprawling halfway across the state, from Corryong to Wallan.

The commission will deliver its draft report next month. Its final report is due in December, probably too late for this year's federal election. But it will set the boundaries for the next two elections at least.