On average, a beautiful set of numbers for Abbott

IF THE weekend's Age/Nielsen poll numbers are right, and the swing against Labor is uniform in all seats, then an election today would install Tony Abbott as prime minister.

More than that. On these figures, the Coalition would win all 15 seats in Western Australia. The Greens would win their first seat in the House of Representatives, unseating Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner in Melbourne.

He would not be the only senior minister thrown out. With Labor's support in the west down to just 25 per cent, Foreign Minister Stephen Smith would be turfed out in Perth.

Of course, it's just an opinion poll. And anyone who remembers opinion polls knows we've been here before. In 2001, and again in 2004, John Howard was trailing in the polls at this stage. He won the elections.

But then, he could spend his way out of trouble. Labor can't.

Nielsen pollster John Stirton cautions that a poll this size has a margin of error of up to 2.6 per cent. That could yield a wide range of outcomes. As Michelle Grattan wrote yesterday, on these numbers the election result is too close to call.

But this was not a rogue poll. Of five polls conducted in May, four have found the Coalition polling at least 50 per cent of the two-party vote. And Labor has more voters in very safe seats, so a 50-50 split of votes tends to mean the Coalition wins most of the seats and government.

Assume a uniform swing in each state and, on these figures, Labor would lose 18 of the 88 seats it notionally holds after the redistribution.

It would be left with just 70 seats of the 150 in the House of Representatives, while the Coalition would win 76, with three independents and one Green. Mr Abbott could govern with the narrowest of majorities.

Who are the voters deserting Labor? For a more reliable picture, we have aggregated numbers from the past two Nielsen polls, and compared them with the same polls a year ago.

The swing against Labor has been massive: 7 per cent on primary votes, and 4.5 per cent in two-party terms. But the swing to the Coalition on primary votes has been just 2 per cent, with the Greens picking up 3.5 per cent and independents and minor parties the other 1.5 per cent.

The polls show the anti-Labor swing is almost universal. Only the 18-24 age group is moving the other way. But it is stronger in the resources states than in the south-east, stronger among women than men, and stronger in the cities than in the rest of the country.

The swing has been most intense of all among the 25 to 39-year-olds, the age group whose aspirations to home ownership have been assaulted by soaring house prices and interest rates. A year ago, 59 per cent of them backed Labor after preferences. Now, only 52 per cent of them do.

Geographically, the biggest hit has been in WA, where Labor's primary vote, even averaged over two polls, has slumped to 30 per cent, down from 42.5 per cent a year ago. After preferences, it is down from 49 per cent to 43 per cent.

The swing in Queensland is almost as bad, down 5.5 per cent in a year, although a year ago, Queensland was Labor's strongest state.

In NSW the swing is 4.5 per cent, while in South Australia the damage has been minor. In Tasmania and the ACT, the numbers polled are too small to be reliable, but they look horrible for Labor.

In Victoria, Labor's primary vote has slumped 6.5 per cent in the past year. Most of that has gone to the Greens, cutting the two-party swing to 3 per cent. Even so, the Liberals would reclaim Deakin and Corangamite, while the Greens would take Melbourne.

The other surprise is that the gender gap is back. A year ago, men and women as groups voted the same, but in the past two polls, men have come down 52-48 for Labor while women have opted 51-49 for the Coalition.

Those who thought Tony Abbott was a turnoff for women were wrong.


WHERE LABOR IS LOSING

% CHANGE IN VOTE IN PAST YEAR


BY STATE

1ST PREFS 2-PARTY

NSW Down 8 Down 4.5

Victoria Down 6.5 Down 3

Queensland Down 8.5 Down 5.5

WA Down 12.5 Down 6

SA/NT Down 6 Down 1.5


BY SEX

Male Down 6.5 Down 3

Female Down 8 Down 6

SOURCE: AGE/NIELSEN POLLS, MARCH-MAY 2009 AND APRIL-MAY 2010