Houdini act couldn't save Victorian Labor

LABOR performed a Houdini act in the state election, winning eight of the 10 closest seats to keep the new Baillieu government to a majority of just two.

The final election results show the outcome was closer in seats than in votes. The Coalition harvested more than 1.4 million primary votes, 270,000 more than Labor, but in most of the close seats, Labor got votes where it mattered.

After preferences, 1.633 million Victorians, or 51.6 per cent, voted for a Baillieu government, while 1.533 million, or 48.4 per cent voted to re-elect the Brumby government.

Labor won 14 or a third of its 43 seats with margins of less than 3 per cent, eight by less than 2 per cent, and 19, or almost half its seats, by less than 5 per cent. By contrast, the Coalition won 36 of its 45 seats by more than 5 per cent, and 43 by more than 2 per cent.

Of the 13 seats it gained, only two were really close: Bentleigh, the closest contest, which the Liberals won by 0.75 per cent, and Seymour, won by 1.2 per cent.

But Greens preferences gave Labor seat after seat by narrow margins: Eltham (0.8 per cent), Ballarat West (1.1), Macedon (1.3), Bellarine (1.4), Ballarat East (1.5), Ivanhoe (1.7), Cranbourne (1.9), Monbulk (1.9), Albert Park (2.0) and Geelong (2.1).

All this will change before Victoria goes to the polls again in 2014. A redistribution in 2012 could create two new seats in the outer northern and western suburbs. That means northern Victoria, the eastern suburbs and the south-eastern suburbs are all at risk of losing a seat.

One of the biggest swings was in Essendon, where former planning minister Justin Madden's plan to parachute into the lower house almost failed, with the Liberals gaining a swing of 9.3 per cent and the preferences of one in three Greens voters.

In truth, there were big swings against Labor in most of the western suburbs: 12.4 per cent in Steve Bracks's old seat of Williamstown, 10.9 per cent in Thomastown and John Brumby's seat of Broadmeadows, 10 per cent in Derrimut, and outsize swings in Keilor (9.1 per cent), Footscray (8.4) and Altona (8.3). But only in Essendon was the result close.

Overall, the two-party swing against Labor was 6 per cent. The median swing was higher still, because in most of the Nationals' heartland, there was little or no swing and in two seats, a swing to Labor.

In Mildura, first-term Nationals MP Peter Crisp suffered a massive 7.9 per cent swing to Labor. In Murray Valley, where veteran Nationals MP Ken Jasper retired, Labor's vote rose 2.7 per cent, while in the Wimmera seat of Lowan, there was no swing at all.

By contrast, Gippsland saw the biggest swing to the Coalition. In Gippsland East, the Nationals unseated independent Craig Ingram with a swing of 20.5 per cent against him.

With some exceptions, the swing against Labor was smaller in the country than in Melbourne. But overall the swing in its marginal seats was no more than the swing statewide. The bush held, but the city fell.


COALITION % LABOR %

MARGIN MARGIN

Bentleigh* 0.8 Eltham 0.8

Ballarat West 1.1

Seymour* 1.2 Macedon 1.3

Bellarine 1.4

Ballarat East 1.5

Ivanhoe 1.7

Cranbourne 1.9

Monbulk 1.9

Carrum* 2.0 Albert Park 2.0

Mordialloc* 2.1 Geelong 2.1

Frankston* 2.1 Essendon 2.4

Mitcham* 2.8 Ripon 2.7

Bendigo West 2.9

Narre Wn Nth 3.0

Forest Hill* 3.2 Brunswick (#G) 3.3

South Barwon* 3.9 Bendigo East 3.8

Albert Park (#G) 3.9

Prahran* 4.3 Yan Yean 4.1

Oakleigh 4.7

Plus 36 seats with Plus 24 seats with

majorities over 5% majorities over 5%

* LIBERAL GAIN AT ELECTION.

# LABOR MARGIN OVER GREENS.


THE FINAL VOTE

VOTES SWING SEATS GAIN/

% % (88) LOSS

Liberals 38.0 3.6 35 12

Nationals 6.8 1.6 10 1

Coalition 44.8 5.2 45 13

Labor 36.3 6.8 43 12

Greens 11.2 1.2 0 -

Others 7.8 0.5 0 1


TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

Coalition 51.6 6.0

Labor 48.4 6.0


THE BIGGEST SWINGS

TWO-PARTY SWING TO COALITION %

Morwell 14.2

Williamstown 12.4

Ferntree Gully 12.0

Gippsland East 11.5*

Broadmeadows 10.9

Thomastown 10.9

Evelyn 10.7

Kilsyth 10.1

Derrimut 10.0


WHERE THE COALITION WON

Burwood 9.6*

Carrum 8.7*

Seymour 7.9*

Mount Waverley 7.8*

Prahran 7.8*

Gembrook 7.4*

Bentleigh 7.0*

South Barwon 6.2*

Mordialloc 5.6*

Frankston 4.8*

Mitcham 4.7*

Forest Hill 4.0*


THE SMALL SWINGS

Melton 0.8

Shepparton 1.3

Mill Park 1.3

Tarneit 1.3

Rodney 1.4

Bendigo East 1.5

Ripon 1.6


SWINGS TO LABOR

Mildura 7.9

Murray Valley 2.7

Lowan 0


* SEATS THAT CHANGED HANDS.

SOURCE: VICTORIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION.